Just a short note here on the previously mentioned $5 billion portion of the education stimulus monies that Secretary of Education Arne Duncan has been charged with distributing to states that, in his words, are “willing to challenge the status quo and get dramatically better.”

It seems that over the next two years, $4.35 billion will be given out in the form of Race to the Top grants, and $650 million in the form of What Works and Innovation grants. (I’m not exactly sure how these grants differ and what criteria states and districts will need to demonstrate during the application process, but it’s still pretty early in the game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Mr. Duncan isn’t sure yet either.) Anyhoo, the purpose of the grants is clearly to incentivize reform and to encourage/reward states and districts that are improving their schools.

First, the problem: Andrew Rotherham (of Eduwonk.com and co-founder/publisher of Education Sector), made the interesting point that education is a $600 billion industry in the US, and $5 billion is less than one percent of it. So it seems like a long shot that Duncan will be able to use such a relatively small amount of money to stimulate major change – especially since much of the remaining $100 billion stimulus fund is being distributed without regulatory leverage (which is subject for a whole other post). Not very encouraging.

Now, the promise: According to a website called Swift and Change Able, Democrats for Education Reform came out with a new analysis showing that even just half of the $5 billion that Duncan has at his disposal is still considerably more than the total $500 million that ed reform’s top three venture philanthropists (Gates, Broad, and Walton) have invested to date. It’s also more than a third of what Title I was three months ago. Their conclusion: The potential for $5 billion to stimulate change is huge.

To me, the argument sounds like six of one, half dozen of another. $5 billion is $5 billion, no matter what you compare it to, and whether that amount of money will be enough to stimulate substantial change is an empirical question whose answer will only come after the money is actually spent. My personal conclusion: one can only hope…

takepart in learning more about the $100 billion education stimulus fund, as well as here,  here,  and here.

(Photo: Tracy O’s flickr photostream/CreativeCommons)