Jared Diamond’s got a razor-sharp op-ed on consumption in today’s New York Times. Diamond, author of Collapse and Guns, Germs and Steel, does the math on whether the rest of the world–or even just China, not to mention India–could ever hope to live the way we do.

Sting might be stung to learn that, contrary to his crooning, one world’s not enough for all of us. At least, not if everyone aspires to squander the world’s resources as prodigiously as we do. But, although Diamond cites alarming numbers that clearly show just how impossible that scenario is, he’s not all doom-and-gloom:

“the world doesn’t have enough resources to allow for raising China’s consumption rates, let alone those of the rest of the world, to our levels. Does this mean we’re headed for disaster?

No, we could have a stable outcome in which all countries converge on consumption rates considerably below the current highest levels. Americans might object: there is no way we would sacrifice our living standards for the benefit of people in the rest of the world. Nevertheless, whether we get there willingly or not, we shall soon have lower consumption rates, because our present rates are unsustainable.

Real sacrifice wouldn’t be required, however, because living standards are not tightly coupled to consumption rates. Much American consumption is wasteful and contributes little or nothing to quality of life. For example, per capita oil consumption in Western Europe is about half of ours, yet Western Europe’s standard of living is higher by any reasonable criterion, including life expectancy, health, infant mortality, access to medical care, financial security after retirement, vacation time, quality of public schools and support for the arts. Ask yourself whether Americans’ wasteful use of gasoline contributes positively to any of those measures.

He goes on to note that there are ways to harvest the world’s fish and forests more sustainably, too; we have the technology, it’s just the political will we’re lacking. But the times, they are a-changin,’ according to Diamond:

Fortunately, in the last year there have been encouraging signs. Australia held a recent election in which a large majority of voters reversed the head-in-the-sand political course their government had followed for a decade; the new government immediately supported the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

Also in the last year, concern about climate change has increased greatly in the United States. Even in China, vigorous arguments about environmental policy are taking place, and public protests recently halted construction of a huge chemical plant near the center of Xiamen. Hence I am cautiously optimistic. The world has serious consumption problems, but we can solve them if we choose to do so.